# Problem context
Iran has built a number of civilian nuclear facilities that are legal under the NPT (nuclear non proliferation treaty) which Iran is a member of. But major European powers as well as the United States are suspicious that these facilities, although designed to produce electricity and other civilian uses, can be used for military purposes, and are used to construct nuclear weapons.
# Behavior over time
On and off cooperation with the IAEA, and some reports of hidden activities, making some countries very nervous.
# Policies now in place or under consideration
Multiple rounds of sanctions have been imposed by the United Nations Security Council, as well as additional sanctions imposed unilaterally by the US on the Iranian military and financial institutions.
# Issues and concerns with the current situation or policies
There is a fear that sanctions can potentially hurt ordinary Iranian citizens. There is also the concern that Iranian scientists can still, despite the current policies of sanctions and frozen assets,
continue testing and maybe further mastering uranium enrichment, to either create a nuclear device secretly or master the technology to do so at a later date.
# Study purpose and questions to be addressed
The purpose of this study is to use a systems approach to study the cause and effect of sanctions
and defiance, incentives and cooperation, and the potential risks of a large scale air strike on Iran.
Hey Mo!
ReplyDeleteInteresting topic selection! This is an issue with very huge, current significance for the world. I'll be interested to see your CLD next week.
Some points I'd make that may or may not be relevant:
"# Problem context": Maybe you could add a sentence or two describing why the United States and/or European Union are particularly interested in ensuring that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Are they interested in protecting Israel or other countries? Do these countries fear that Iran will attack them directly, or do they fear that Iran will provide a nuclear weapon to a terrorist organization? Also, I wonder if it might provide more background context if you could provide a thought as to how a civilian nuclear facility could be used to serve a military purpose? Do these two purposes require different Uranium isotopes (U-235 vs U-238)? Do the samples require different levels of purity? In other words, what how easy is it to convert a civilian facility into a weapon-making facility?
"# Behavior over time": This section basically sums up the back-and-forth that's been taking place regarding the negotiation process, but I feel that a few specific examples would be helpful here. What specific activities have made the United States/European Union nervous? As you hinted, an insider's defection led to the discovery of Iran's secret construction of a second, underground nuclear facility, which certainly raises some questions about Iran's nuclear intentions.
"# Policies now in place or under consideration": What policies has Iran adopted in this standoff?
"# Issues and concerns with the current situation or policies": Can you give a 1-2 sentence summary why you think sanctions might potentially be ineffective? What do you think Iran would do with a nuclear weapon? (Obviously I agree that we should be very afraid of this possibility, but for the sake of completeness, it might help if you commented specifically on how you think Iran would behave if it had nuclear weapons).
Those are just some thoughts. Good job and nice topic!
A very timely topic, as Nathan points out. Also, I agree wholeheartedly with Nathan's suggestions about your discussion of Behavior over Time, Policies, and Issues/concerns. These suggestions are spot-on. The point is that you need to educate the reader on how this problem has played out over time (without necessarily giving a detailed blow-by-blow history). You refer to on-and-off cooperation with IAEA but don't explain what that looks like.
ReplyDeleteAs far as policies...the policy of sanctions seems to be the primary focus. I suggest restricting attention to that. What are its intended consequences? Unintended consequences (or consequences that MIGHT happen)?
Also, you do need to talk about Iran's policy. What is motivating them? What is their mental model? How are the mental models of Iran and the international community working together to either remedy or compound this problem?
By exploring the dynamics associated with Iran's policy to pursue nuclear development and the international community's policy to impose pressure and sanctions, I think you have the makings of a very interesting analysis.
As you rewrite this articulation, keep in mind that it needs to read like a narrative...something that the reader can follow, be engaged in, understand. Something that paints a picture of the problem and motivates the need for a broader systems-oriented perspective.
One last note: Nathan's comments in his 1st paragraph are interesting points, but probably fall outside the scope of the analysis that I'm suggesting you focus on here.
Nathan:
ReplyDeleteThat is a valid question, but to describe that in 2 sentences would be problematic. There are military (protection of Israel and Arab gulf states allied to the US) economic, political, religious and many other reasons, both of known nature and more ''under the table'.
To explain the so called ''dual use'' possibility of the technology behind nuclear technology in general and the enrichment
in particular would also require the use of fairly sophisticated concepts and terminologies that may not be understood by the readers without thorough and lengthy explanations. Hence I skipped the fuel cycle, enrichment levels and current levels of Iranian enrichment. (I believe they are now enriching at a level around 30 percent, military use though would require 90 percent).
To answer Dr Deaton, yes I see how focusing on the role of sanctions in this issue will be a good idea.
The idea behind sanctions is to put pressure on countries to make them do certain things or abandon certain policies. It has not worked at all so far, in fact it seems to backfire.
The Iranian nuclear program dates back to the days of the monarchy, before the revolution in 1979. It was stalled during the Iran-Iraq war but has been slowly gaining pace. Today the Iranians almost view themselves as a modern nation that is or will master nuclear technology, and, along with the ''cultural'' factor Dr Deaton mentioned, (pride certainly has something to do with their current defiance. If numerous other nations are doing it, ''why not us'')the cultural element is crucial in understanding the situation.
In terms of behavior over time, every time new rounds of sanctions were introduced, Iran would respond with plans to heighten enrichment levels or threaten to further expand their nuclear infrastructure. This is what I plan to eventually model, the advantages and disadvantages of sanctions, and what their effects are.