Iran & Sanctions Part II

# Problem context

Iran has built a number of civilian nuclear facilities that are legal under the NPT (nuclear non proliferation treaty) which Iran is a member of. But major European powers as well as the United States are suspicious that these facilities, although designed to produce electricity and other civilian uses, can be used for military purposes, and are used to construct nuclear weapons.

# Behavior over time

 On and off cooperation with the IAEA. Iran’s level of cooperation has been irregular and at times lacking. After some reports of hidden activities, and the fact that they unveiled a previously undisclosed nuclear facility underground   made some countries very nervous. Some incentives suggested by the west such as keeping the spent fuel in a third party country has backfired as the Iranians questioned why other countries , that are not even part of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, get better treatment.

# Policies now in place or under consideration

  Multiple rounds of sanctions have been imposed by the United Nations Security Council, as well as additional sanctions imposed unilaterally by the US on the Iranian military and financial institutions. The intended policy of sanctions is to push Iran back to the negotiating table and to be more flexible in their demand for controlling their own enrichment process. Despite that being the intention, it seems it has so far only aggravated the problem and reduced the amount of trust between all parties, Increased sanctions have been met with defiance and saber rattling, and this could have the potential to be damaging for both sides, as Iran might not help with the already complex situations in Afghanistan and Iraq which they border and have a certain level of influence in. The risk of war or proxy wars is also possible.

Iran seems to be motivated by a number of factors. Nuclear power would help them divert their oil supplies for further exports and bring in money. From a cultural angle, the nuclear program is the pride of Iran at this time, and is viewed by many as a great scientific achievement. Any attempts, especially by foreign powers, to step in and reverse this technological achievement, will be considered deeply offensive.

# Issues and concerns with the current situation or policies

  There is a fear that sanctions can potentially hurt ordinary Iranian citizens. There is also the concern that Iranian scientists can still, despite the current policies of sanctions and frozen assets,

continue testing and maybe further mastering uranium enrichment, to either create a nuclear device secretly or master the technology to do so at a later date.

# Study purpose and questions to be addressed

 The purpose of this study is to use a systems approach to study the cause and effect of sanctions

and defiance, incentives and cooperation, and the potential risks of a large scale air strike on Iran.

B1) Iran, under the threat of sanctions and even military action, cooperates with the IAEA. This is the mental model.

B2) As Iranian enrichment continues, international pressure increases, increasing Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA, and therefore restricting enrichment efforts.

R1) The threats to ‘’punish’’ Iran hurts their national pride, triggering a reaction in the form of increased funding to the Revolutionary Guards,  who retaliate by funding anti-coalition groups in Iraq and Afghanistan, hence further raising the risk of military confrontation or sanctions.

R2) Security Council threats trigger an escalation which results in an increase in Iranian missile testing, which itself increases international pressure.

R3) The threats to punish Iran hurts their national pride, triggering a reaction this time in the form of increased funding for the Revolutionary Guards,  which, after a delay, (the time it takes funding to translate into action) increase the testing of long range missile systems, which aggravates the problem and further  raises the risk of confrontation.